By Mubasher Bukhari, Lahore

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The latest crisis between India and Pakistan - both nuclear powers and long-time enemies - has brought South Asia to the brink of a nuclear catastrophe. It culminated last Saturday in a ceasefire agreement brokered by the Trump administration. "After a long night of US-brokered talks, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a complete and immediate ceasefire," wrote US President Donald Trump on his short messaging service Truth Social. He congratulated both governments for showing "common sense and great intelligence". With the mediation action, the US administration deviated from its principle of no longer wanting to play the world's policeman everywhere. But it obviously had insights that suggested the seriousness of the situation and the danger of a major war. Significantly, the flare-up of tensions came in a month that marked the anniversary of the first nuclear tests by both countries in 1998 - India's on 11 May and Pakistan's on 28 May - giving the clashes a special symbolic significance. Here is a summary of the events and an outlook for the future.

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The heaviest air battle in bilateral history

The renewed dispute was characterised by fierce fighting and a rapid succession of claims, counter-claims and denials. However, last Tuesday marked a turning point that distinguished the conflict from many previous ones. India first launched a large-scale missile offensive against installations in Punjab and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, including religious seminaries in Muridke, Bahawalpur, Kotli, Muzaffarabad and Bagh. According to Indian authorities, terror camps of the Islamist movements Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Hizbul Mujahideen were destroyed and over 100 militants killed in the attacks. Pakistan contradicted this account and stated that the Indian attacks had instead hit mosques and civilian homes, killing 31 civilians, including women and children, and injuring 43 others.

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On the same night, the largest air battle in the history of both countries took place, which some military analysts have labelled ‘Beyond Visual Range’. Between 70 and 80 Indian and 27 to 30 Pakistani aircraft engaged in a battle over Kashmir, firing at targets from distances of more than 160 kilometres and remaining within their respective airspace without violating the enemy's airspace. Pakistan claimed to have shot down five Indian fighter jets, including three French Rafale jets - claims that India denied, although some international media also reported that at least three Indian jets were shot down. It was not only the scale of this battle over the skies of South Asia, which also involved the use of Chinese equipment, that was remarkable, but also the use of modern technology. Although this was lost in the hustle and bustle of other global events, international military strategists will study the air battle all the more carefully.

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Also because China played a special role. "In this war, China has gone to great lengths to support Pakistan. It has supplied the country with satellite data to monitor Indian movements," says a security expert. China plays a crucial role in Pakistan's economy and especially in the defence sector. "Pakistan depends heavily on Chinese weapons. More than 80 per cent of its defence comes from China," according to Pakistani security circles, who privately discuss Beijing's role in the India-Pakistan conflict.

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Two days after this escalation, India reportedly shot down dozens of Israeli-made drones over Pakistani cities. The Pakistani government reported three deaths and four injuries, while India announced that it had destroyed several military installations. The Pakistani armed forces, in turn, said they had shot down 29 drones with both soft and hard-kill defence systems. The drone strikes penetrated deep into Pakistani territory, hitting key cities such as Lahore, Karachi, Rawalpindi, Chakwal and Sukkur.

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On Saturday night, Indian positions fired ballistic missiles at important Pakistani military installations. Pakistan retaliated by using its missile systems and air force to attack 11 Indian cities.

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It all began on 22 April with an attack in the Kashmiri resort of Pahalgam. India accused Pakistan of being behind the terrorist attack, in which 26 mostly Indian tourists died. Some leaders of the ruling BJP party claimed that the attackers had targeted Hindu tourists, fuelling tensions. Delhi announced a swift and decisive response, accompanied by a loud media campaign. Islamabad condemned the attack, expressed its condolences and even suggested an independent investigation - an offer that India rejected.

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Terrorism as a root of evil

India claims that Pakistan-based militant Islamist organisations are responsible for a number of major attacks on Indian soil, including the attack on Parliament in 2001, the Taj Mahal Hotel in Mumbai in 2008, an airbase in Pathankot in Punjab in 2016, Indian policemen in Pulwama, Kashmir, in 2019 and the recent massacre in Pahalgam in 2025. Delhi accuses Pakistan's powerful intelligence agency, the ISI, of providing operational and financial support to the extremists as part of an asymmetric warfare strategy aimed at destabilising Jammu and Kashmir.

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At the same time, India's government tried to cut off its neighbour from international financial sources and have it placed on the so-called grey list of the Financial Action Task Force. This body was once set up by the G7 community of industrialised nations to combat money laundering and terrorist financing. Pakistan then endeavoured to fulfil the requirements of the task force and arrested several leaders of extremist groups. However, this does not appear to have stopped their activities.

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In a recent Indian missile attack on a mosque in Bahawalpur, relatives of Mado Azhar, the founder of the officially banned Jaish-e-Mohammed group, and four clerics were reportedly killed. In retaliation, Azhar, who is known for his links to the Afghan Taliban, Al-Qaeda and ISIS, vowed revenge. Pakistani security forces have cracked down on the Islamists in the past, particularly during General Musharraf's regime, as the organisation has been involved in terrorist attacks in Pakistan, including assassination attempts on Musharraf himself. The group and its charity organisation, the Al-Rehmat Trust, allegedly continue to operate under a religious guise.

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Pakistan, however, vehemently denies supporting militant groups and repeatedly emphasises that it is itself one of the biggest victims of terrorism and has lost over 80,000 people since 2001. It in turn accuses India of strengthening terrorism within Pakistan and points to a recent train hijacking in which 26 people, including army officers, died.

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Kashmir: The core conflict

The actual origins of the tense relationship go back to the British colonial era and the partition of the subcontinent in 1947, when Muslim Pakistan and predominantly Hindu India were established as independent nation states. Since then, the Kashmir region has been disputed, with both countries waging wars over the Himalayan region in 1948, 1965 and 1999. And the latest escalation is also linked to the unresolved status of Kashmir.

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India claims the entire territory of Jammu and Kashmir, including Pakistan's north-west (Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmi), on the basis of an Instrument of Accession signed in October 1947. Pakistan, on the other hand, argues that Kashmir is a Muslim-majority territory that should have been annexed to Pakistan in 1947 as part of the Partition Plan. It rejects the Instrument of Accession as forced and not representative of the will of the Kashmiris and insists on a plebiscite ordered by the United Nations, citing a UN resolution from 1948. In has consistently ignored this demand to date. The United Nations recognises Kashmir as a disputed territory and calls for a peaceful solution through dialogue.

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The fact that the area is of great strategic importance for Pakistan - five major rivers have their source there - does not make a solution any easier. In the current dispute, Pakistan accused its neighbour of targeting the Neelum-Jhelum Dam in the Pakistani-controlled part of Kashmir. India immediately rejected the accusation and even granted media access to the structure to refute it. At the same time, however, Delhi suspended the Indus Water Treaty signed in 1960, which regulates the distribution of water between the two countries. For years, however, there have been repeated disputes over the precious water, on which Pakistan's agriculture in the south is extremely dependent.

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Subdued hopes

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After the Mumbai attacks in 2008, India suspended dialogue with Pakistan. However, President Trump's recent statement, in which he called on both sides to engage in talks, is a glimmer of hope. Pakistan welcomed the prospect of dialogue, especially if it opened a way to discuss the reinstatement of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution (which granted Jammu and Kashmir extensive autonomy). Possible outcomes of future negotiations could include: an independent status for Kashmir, a joint agreement that gives both countries control over their respective regions, a framework for water sharing that ensures stability.

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Nevertheless, deep mistrust on both sides, rigid national positions and the intertwining of water, terrorism and territory suggest that further escalation is likely if there is no real diplomatic engagement. A new conflict could erupt at any time unless the two states resolve their core issues, including the Kashmir question and mutual accusations of terrorism.

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Mubasher Bukhari is a journalist from Lahore, the capital of Pakistan's Punjab province. He writes for Pakistani and international media and is considered one of the most experienced political observers and authors in the region.