Column by Michael Backfisch

As is well known, Donald Trump’s ego knows no bounds. The U.S. president sees himself as a world leader and a peacemaker. He is convinced that his words are taken as gospel by the public—regardless of whether they are true or false. At a campaign rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, last Saturday, Trump shouted to his cheering supporters: “It’s amazing. I can say the stupidest things, and you clap!”  And the crowd did indeed clap.

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The president believes that, even in the war in Ukraine, his version of reality is the established truth. Over the weekend, he announced an immediate “energy ceasefire” between the warring parties—that is, an agreement by both sides to halt attacks on energy facilities. However, neither Moscow nor Kyiv confirmed a joint agreement. When this contradiction was pointed out to him, Trump explained: “They agreed because I said they agreed.” Meanwhile, Russian attacks on Ukrainian power plants continued.

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Shortly before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, Trump still sees himself as a savior. “So what I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I'm on the ballot” he urged his supporters during an appearance in Nebraska. And he made grandiose promises: “Very soon, the war with Iran will be over, and then oil prices will plunge. They’ll be lower than they were before the war.”

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These statements sound more like self-reassurance. Even in Nebraska, which is considered a reliable Republican stronghold, Trump’s political vision is no longer a sure thing. Incumbent Republican Senator Pete Ricketts is only narrowly ahead in the polls of union leader Dan Osborn, who is running as an independent. Skepticism is growing in the state—as it is across the country. The “golden age” that Trump promised at his inauguration in January 2025 has not materialized in the daily lives of many Americans.

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Above all, the sharp rise in gas prices is putting a strain on household budgets. The reason is the war against Iran instigated by Trump. The national average price for a gallon (just under 3.8 liters) of regular gasoline was more than $4.30 in mid-October; in early February, it was still $2.87. A gallon of diesel costs over $6.20 on average nationwide—nearly 70 percent more than before the start of the war with Iran. For a vast country like the United States, where people travel long distances by car, these figures represent a significant cost factor.

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It’s not just the price at the gas pump—shopping at the supermarket is also a source of frustration for many U.S. citizens. High food prices are also due to Trump’s tariff and immigration policies. The tariffs are largely passed on to consumers. The agricultural sector is facing a severe labor shortage as a result of Trump’s strict deportation policies. Added to this is the rising cost of energy. In many regions, electricity prices have skyrocketed. Many companies in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) have set up data centers that require large amounts of electricity.

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Another factor contributing to the gloomy mood among many Americans is the high cost of loans for real estate, cars, and other goods. For example, interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages climbed to around 7.4 percent in mid-October, the highest level in nearly three years. Buying a townhouse or a house is considered an important form of investment in the United States. Mortgage rates were driven by yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, which reached their highest level in 24 years.

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The inflation rate rose to 3.7 percent in September compared with the same month a year ago. “But it feels like much more—twice as high, most Americans would probably assume. The war in Iran is very unpopular,” emphasizes Klaus Larres of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Over the past five months, average wage growth for ordinary workers has often been below the inflation rate. When there’s less money in people’s pockets, their willingness to spend declines. The University of Michigan’s widely recognized consumer confidence index plummeted in May to its lowest level since records began.

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The president seems to be ignoring the surge in prices for everyday goods. He praises the United States as “the hottest country in the world,” which, under his leadership, has become a mecca for investors. Yet the overall data on the U.S. economy is quite solid. The economy grew by more than two percent in the first two quarters of 2026. For the third quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is even forecasting growth of 3.6 percent. The unemployment rate hovers around a historically low 4.2 percent. The stock markets are racing from one record high to the next, fueled by the sky-high profit expectations of AI companies.

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There is a world of difference between the grand narrative promoted by Trump and the reality of daily life as experienced by many U.S. citizens. For many, this feels like déjà vu. In the race for the White House in the summer of 2024, Democratic President Joe Biden highlighted the thriving U.S. economy as the hallmark of his economic policy. Under the banner of “Bidenomics,” he pointed to robust growth rates of around three percent and the creation of millions of new jobs. The inflation rate, which had surged past the nine-percent mark in June 2022 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, dropped to below three percent in the summer of 2024.

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But Biden’s message didn’t resonate with the public. “The inflation Americans actually feel is not the same as the macroeconomic data. Goods that are purchased regularly (‘high-frequency purchases’) contribute much more to the subjective perception of inflation than purchases of durable goods such as cars or furniture,” says Welf Werner, director of the Heidelberg Center for American Studies (HCA) at the University of Heidelberg. “Food and energy prices rose particularly rapidly and sharply in 2024.” Trump, an instinct-driven campaigner, exploited this mercilessly and blamed the high prices on the then-president, labeling them “Biden inflation.”

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Trump also appears to be falling into the “affordability” trap in the 2026 midterm congressional elections. Karine Jean-Pierre, White House press secretary under Biden, offers a self-critical assessment today. “The truth is, we had a stale message and outdated models for delivering it. It cost Mr. Biden and, eventually, Vice President Kamala Harris dearly. President Trump is now making a mistake even more damaging,” she wrote in an op-ed for The New York Times. Added to this is the dominance of social media, which fuels outrage but not accuracy. “A TikTok about high prices, filmed with a phone in a grocery store aisle or in front of a gas pump could attract more attention than anything I said at the daily White House press conferences, or than any interview a cabinet member gave on Sunday talk shows,” the former Biden spokesperson emphasizes.

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With the midterm congressional elections just around the corner, Trump is not a driving force for his party—he’s a liability. Long-standing Republican strongholds like Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, and Alaska are wavering. The race in the oil- and gas-rich state of Texas is considered particularly close. According to the poll average from the news website Real Clear Politics, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico currently leads Republican Ken Paxton by more than two percentage points. Trump’s close ally recently complained during a private meeting with party donors about headwinds from Washington. According to an audio recording leaked to the news portal Axios, when asked what issues were holding his campaign back, Paxton said, “It’s the war, it’s gas prices, it’s diesel.”

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Sugarcoating, denying, and wishful thinking: Biden tried this kind of reality-distortion in the summer of 2024. It’s unlikely to help Trump in the fall of 2026.