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Former Polish President Aleksander Kwaśniewski is skeptical that the war in Ukraine will end anytime soon. He believes it will last for years, and that there will be no chance for a just peace—at best, a ceasefire. “And the conflict between the people will last for generations because the hatred between Ukrainians and Russians runs so deep.” Poland and Germany, as neighboring countries, must prepare themselves for this.

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During a visit to Berlin on Monday, including to the International Club of the Foreign Office (ICAA), Kwaśniewski explained his assessment with Vladimir Putin's goal of creating a “Greater Russia” that would encompass not only Ukraine but also Belarus, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. He said Putin had already told him this at several personal meetings years ago. The Baltic states were not so much part of this because they were less central to Russia’s understanding of history.

Putin will use every means at his disposal to gain control over all of Ukraine, according to Kwaśniewski, who has been particularly active in the neighboring country since the 2004 Orange Revolution. This does not mean that Russia wants to occupy the entire country, but rather the Donbas, and will attempt to undermine all of Ukraine’s progress toward EU accession. “And all of Putin’s successors will continue this policy.”

It is also the Russian president's plan to destroy NATO, and in doing so he received unexpected help from his American counterpart Donald Trump. The current U.S. administration is “extremely naive” toward Russia. However, foreign policy priorities had already shifted under Democratic President Barack Obama—from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region.

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Even after Trump, Europe will continue to face problems with the U.S. due to demographic shifts there. The descendants of European immigrants are gaining less and less influence, while those of Latin American or Asian descent are gaining more and more.  Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, who was born in Czechoslovakia, knew and understood Europeans exceptionally well; now the Secretary of State is Marco Rubio, who has Cuban roots. “The U.S. will be less and less interested in transatlantic relations, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the next Secretary of State were a Mr. Liu or Kim.”

During a discussion at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), Kwaśniewski nevertheless argued in favor of maintaining the U.S. military presence in Europe: “We need the U.S.” However, he added, Europe must simultaneously invest more and more in its own security. NATO is also in America’s interest, even if Trump always acts as if it were a charity organization, because it serves to maintain U.S. influence in the West. Germany and Poland have a special responsibility toward NATO, the politician emphasized.

Kwaśniewski considers Polish-German relations as fundamentally good, even though there are always attempts in Polish politics to get rid of old stereotypes and portray Germany as an enemy. It is therefore important to manage the problems from the past well. Among these, he included compensation for the approximately 50,000 Polish victims of the Nazi regime who are still alive today. Trade relations between the two countries have developed exceptionally well. The volume of trade has risen to 180 billion euros. Poland is on the verge of overtaking France as Germany’s fourth-largest trading partner.

Kwaśniewski also met with Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier on Monday for a private visit. The Polish Social Democrat defeated Solidarność founder Lech Wałęsa in 1995 and remained president of Poland until 2005; according to polls, he remains one of the most popular presidents to this day. During his tenure, he led his country into NATO in 1999 and into the EU in 2004.

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