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It is well known, decisions and processes take a little longer in the European Union. This is proven once again by the recent conclusion of the Mercosur trade agreement after more than 25 years of negotiation – and even this is not yet completely certain, because the EU Parliament has to approve it and not everyone there is convinced yet. The accession process of the six countries of the Western Balkans has been taking almost as long since this perspective was first opened to them at a summit meeting in 2003. Albania and Montenegro are the closest to membership, North Macedonia has only started negotiations in 2022, Bosnia has not even started yet, and Kosovo, whose independence is not even recognized by all EU states, is not even an official candidate for membership. Progress made by Serbia, the largest country in the region with around seven million inhabitants, has so far failed due to an unclear relationship with Kosovo, a lack of political reforms and, according to the EU, too close ties to Russia.

Together with Serbian and German business representatives, CDU member of the Bundestag Peter Beyer, member of the Foreign Affairs Committee and former rapporteur for the region, called this week for greater focus on the Western Balkans, especially Serbia, and for faster, more pragmatic action without constantly pointing the moral finger. There is a perception problem in the “Berlin Bubble,” he criticized. Because of its size and economic strength (economic forecast for this year: 3.5 percent), Serbia is a key country in the region. Germany must be at the forefront when it comes to stability in Europe, said Beyer with regard to the increasing influence of Russia and China. “I don't want to imagine what happens if we give up Serbia and the Western Balkans. We would then strengthen forces in the heart of Europe that do not represent our interests at all. ”

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The Union politician, chairman of the Bundestag Sub-Committee on Crisis Presentation and Strategic Foresight, pleaded for strengthening reform efforts in Serbia. Right now, it is important to seize opportunities to invest and give people a perspective. President Vućić has announced early parliamentary and presidential elections for 2026 and hopes to be able to solve the domestic political crisis. For months, thousands of Serbs have been demonstrating on the streets of Belgrade and Novi Sad against corruption and the government's authoritarian course.

Europe's generation zero chatbot

The president of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Marko Ćadez, pointed out the difficult situation his country finds itself in, on the one hand due to US sanctions against the oil and gas company Nafta Industrija Serbije (NIS), in which the Russian company Gazprom holds a majority stake, and on the other hand due to pressure from Russia because Serbia does not support the EU sanctions but also supplies ammunition to Ukraine via EU countries. Vućić temporarily suspended arms deliveries last year, but then resumed them. NIS covers around 80 percent of domestic oil demand with its refinery in Pancevo, while Serbia obtains 100 percent of its natural gas from Russia. One possibility is nationalization (the state currently holds a 29.9 percent stake) or a takeover of the Russian shares in NIS by another investor. Among others, Hungary's MOL and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company were in talks.

A critical position paper from the Chamber of Commerce states that Europe, with its previous approach to eastward enlargement “like a generation zero chatbot,” is ignoring the geopolitical changes facing both Serbia and the European Union. These include the disproportionately greater influence, real political and economic power, and potential and resources of countries such as China and Russia. “In this context, the concept of enlarging the European Union in the Western Balkans cannot have any realistic chance of success if it continues in the same formal and often self-sufficient manner that we have seen in the last decade. ”

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In fact, almost everything has changed since then, the structure of the economy, the role of investors, the definition of strategic resources... “everything - except the old story about clusters and chapters.” A candidate must complete 34 chapters before joining, Serbia has only completed two so far. Verbal loyalty tests to Serbia's European path, it continues, would not do justice to the actual dynamics and opportunities of the relationship. If it was finally possible to conclude Mercosur despite internal opposition, there must also be a more creative approach towards the Western Balkans.

Potential in the IT sector

The emancipation of Russia in the energy sector will not be an easy process as long as Serbia is not integrated into the European energy network, emphasized Jörg Heeskens, who has been an economic policy advisor for around 14 years, first to the head of government and then to President Vućić. In any case, one should not point the finger at the country, saying, “We told you so after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.”  Heeskens firmly rejected any doubts about Serbia's European orientation. “The Serbs are Europeans.” Only ten percent of trade volume goes outside Europe. With regard to the most important criterion for EU accession – the normalization of relations with the former Serbian province of Kosovo – the German advisor expressed his conviction that both countries would only agree to this if rewards were guaranteed.

Serbia has developed well as a location for suppliers to the German automotive industry, such as the Coburger Brose Group, which manufactures electronics near Belgrade, but cannot completely escape the difficulties of the industry. However, according to the Chamber of Commerce, there is still great potential for expansion in so-called “nearshoring”, the shortening of supply chains and relocation of production to nearby countries. Serbia would also like to cooperate more with Germany in the IT sector. The share of this sector in Serbian gross domestic product has overtaken that of agriculture, but so far it exports mainly to the USA, Great Britain and Switzerland. Chamber President Ćadez emphasized how important Germany is for the economies of the Western Balkans and Serbia in particular. It is already the largest investor and number 1 export country for Serbia. “Without Germany, the region will not have a good future.”

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The Chamber of Commerce's position paper does not mention Serbia's unconditional accession to the EU. An enlarged European Economic Area based on the model of the European Free Trade Organization EFTA could also be considered as an alternative model of deeper economic cooperation with the EU, it says. The EFTA states Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland form an economic area together with the EU. Belgrade signed a free trade agreement with China in 2024. The Middle Kingdom is also investing billions in Serbia's infrastructure.

Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul (CDU) visited all six Balkan states in November last year and repeatedly emphasized the EU as a community of values. He urged Serbia to take a clear stance towards Russia. In 2014, Germany initiated the so-called Berlin Process to promote regional cooperation and cooperation between the Western Balkans and the EU. Some see this more as a consolation prize for an EU weary of expansion. Two years ago, Berlin sent its own agricultural attaché to the embassy in Skopje, with the specific aim of boosting trade and production of agricultural products.

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