Column by Michael Backfisch

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US President Donald Trump is once again doing the opposite of what he said he would do. During the 2016 election campaign, he boasted that America must end its “endless wars.” True to his pacifist rhetoric, he now likes to boast that he has settled “eight wars.” But in the Caribbean, Trump is not pursuing olive branch diplomacy. Instead, the drums of war against Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro are growing louder.

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Off the coast of the South American country, the head of the White House has assembled a powerful armada: several destroyers, amphibious attack ships and a long-range bomber are grouped around the world's largest aircraft carrier, the “USS Gerald R. Ford.” 15,000 soldiers are ready for action. Officially, the mission is sold as a fight against the drug smuggling network “Cartel of the Suns” (“Cartel de los Soles”), whose boss is said to be Maduro. The Americans have already destroyed more than 20 suspected courier ships. At least 83 people were killed as a result. Most recently, in a second blow, the US military is said to have liquidated two men who were clinging to the smouldering wreck of a severely damaged boat. According to the Washington Post, “Secretary of War” Pete Hegseth has given the order, which the White House denies.

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One thing is certain: the Pentagon is taking the law into its own hands in the Caribbean, which is infuriating international law experts. Under the blanket term “self-defense,” alleged drug-smuggling ships are sunk as if it were a computer game.Washington has so far failed to provide any evidence of the illegal transport of cocaine or fentanyl. In addition, significantly more drugs are being delivered to the USA via Mexico; Venezuela is primarily a transit country for the European market. Trump threatened that not only Maduro's state, but also other countries would have to reckon with US attacks, pointing to the cocaine factories in Colombia.

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The campaign against the narcotic mafia, carried out with martial fanfare, is not particularly credible anyway. Trump pardoned former president of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández, who was sentenced to 45 years in prison in the USA for drug trafficking on a large scale. The conservative politician is said to have helped drug smugglers — including former Mexican cartel boss Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, who is in custody in the United States — to smuggle hundreds of thousands of kilograms of cocaine northward. The US Department of Justice had written at the time that Hernández had misused his power to support one of the largest and most violent drug trafficking conspiracies in the world. The White House justified the clean bill for Hernández by pointing out that the Honduran had been tricked by the Biden administration.

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Reports in the US media suggest that the campaign against Venezuelan drug cartels is merely a pretext. According to the New York Times, Trump has pointed out in conversation with confidants that Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world at 300 billion barrels. Given the paramount importance that the president attaches to fossil fuels, this could be the real reason for a military operation. There is also speculation that Trump wants to oust the hated Stone Age socialist Maduro from office and replace him with a pro-American successor. Last week, Trump spoke on the phone with the ruler in Caracas and, according to the Miami Herald newspaper, offered him and his family safe passage if he resigned immediately. Maduro refused.

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Trump is likely to continue escalating his threats in the hope that the left-wing autocrat will flee. Military strikes against the South American country are becoming more likely. Trump has already authorized operations by his foreign intelligence agency CIA. He also announced ground operations “very soon.” He had declared airspace over and around Venezuela to be “closed.”

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It is a revival of the Monroe Doctrine: in 1823, US President James Monroe proclaimed the motto “America for Americans.” It was a warning to European powers not to interfere in North and South America. Today, however, it is not Europe that is the big competitor in the western hemisphere, but China. The government in Beijing has already secured privileged access to mineral resources in the resource-rich countries of Latin America — including Venezuela. US media are already referring to the president's course as the “Donroe Doctrine.”

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Trump's move in the Caribbean has little to do with conflict resolution. An attack on Venezuela or a violent coup is highly risky because it triggers an uncontrollable dynamic. The West's interventions in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan have shown this. Trump, who comes from the entertainment business, has a knack for doing foreign policy in the style of PR stunts. The developments in the Gaza Strip also illustrate his lack of strategy and foresight. Barely two months after the summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, where the US president was celebrated with great fanfare for his 20-point plan, war has flared up again in the coastal enclave.

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The reason for Trump's activism is also due to problems on the home front. The new “golden age” that the president promised the Americans at his inauguration is still a long way off. The inflation rate climbed to three percent in September. The tariffs announced in early April against friends and foes alike are likely to exacerbate inflation. Consumer confidence in the USA has fallen to a seven-month low. According to a survey published on Trump's home broadcaster Fox News in November, 76 percent of Americans have a negative opinion of the economy. That was even below what predecessor Joe Biden did at the end of his term of office.Rising prices had significantly ruined the 2024 election for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. With less than a year to go before the midterm elections to the US Congress, these are bad omens for Trump.

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In addition, the large-scale publication of files previously kept under cover in the abuse scandal involving sex offender Jeffrey Epstein is likely to create new political fire. Trump had blocked the release of the documents for a long time. In doing so, he fueled speculation that he too — like many celebrities — could be involved in the shadowy realm of his former friend Epstein's prostitution. This led to cracks in his MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) movement. The announced withdrawal of the once ardent Trump supporter Marjorie Taylor Greene from Congress is just one of several examples.

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The president acts instinctively and erratically. He doesn't consider the end of his steps. There is much to suggest that, with his advance in the case of Venezuela, he wants to demonstrate a pseudo-ability to act in order to also distract attention from domestic political difficulties.

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